Abstract

We present a global Artificial Intelligence (AI) conceptual framework, operationalization, and forecast to the year 2100. A series of AI indices were developed within the International Futures (IFs) integrated assessment platform, a quantitative macro-level system that produces dynamic forecasts for 186 countries. IFs models extensively interconnected aspects of global human development, including: agriculture, economics, demographics, energy, infrastructure, environment, water, governance, health, education, finance, technology, and international politics. We conceptualize AI in three categories: narrow AI, general artificial intelligence (AGI), and superintelligence. Today’s AI consists of six basic and narrow AI technologies: computer vision, machine learning, natural language processing, the Internet of Things (IoT), robotics, and reasoning. As an index score for all approaches 10, we forecast AGI technology to become available, representing it with a machine IQ index score, roughly analogous to human IQ scores. The emergence of AGI is constrained by the rate of improvement in and development of machine reasoning and associated technologies. When machine IQ scores approach superhuman levels, we forecast the emergence of superintelligent AI. The current path forecast estimates that AGI could appear between 2040 and 2050. Superintelligent AI is forecast to be developed close to the end of the current century. We frame the current path with faster and slower scenarios of development and facilitate analysis of alternative scenarios. Future work can assess the complex impacts of AI development on human society, including economic productivity, labor, international trade, and energy systems.

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, International Futures (IFs), Superintelligence, Modeling, Forecasting